It’s Christmas already? In lower than per week, 2023 will probably be within the rear-view mirror. This implies it’s not too early to look forward at what 2024 might carry for cybersecurity.

All through its historical past, the cybersecurity business has always reacted to attacker pivots in addition to operational actuality shifts, and the brand new yr will probably be no completely different. The cat-and-mouse recreation between attackers and defenders is bound to accentuate and turn out to be extra advanced as newer applied sciences like AI and the cloud change the cybersecurity panorama.

Add different elements, resembling extra aggressive authorities motion on cybersecurity dangers and the 2024 election, and the brand new yr is shaping up as notably dynamic.

Listed here are 5 developments to count on within the coming yr.

1: The accelerating information explosion will drive a safety technique rethink

The world has been speaking about exponential development in pc information for years, however actuality continues to be managing to exceed the hype. One report predicts that the quantity of knowledge a typical group must safe will leap by 42% within the subsequent yr and enhance by a staggering 7X within the subsequent 5 years.

I consider there are two important causes for this: the ever-increasing prevalence of data-generating digital gadgets and surging adoption of AI programs that require big quantities of knowledge for his or her coaching and enchancment.

In in the present day’s multifaceted expertise panorama, enterprises face a brand new problem. Knowledge generated in software-as-a-service (SaaS) programs climbed 145% within the final yr, whereas cloud information was up 73%. By comparability, on-premise information facilities noticed a 20% rise. Oh — and don’t neglect somebody has to pay the cloud and SaaS payments, that are going up nearly as quick as the information is rising.

What this all means is that in 2024, organizations will face a stiffer problem in securing information throughout a quickly increasing and altering floor space.

That will probably be a significant cybersecurity focus for a lot of organizations subsequent yr. Extra will acknowledge that the complete safety assemble has shifted: It’s now not about defending particular person castles however moderately an interconnected caravan.

2: Attackers will broaden their assaults on virtualized infrastructure

As organizations develop extra refined in defending conventional targets resembling computer systems and cell gadgets, some dangerous actors have already pivoted to making an attempt to penetrate different infrastructure elements resembling SaaS and Linux purposes, APIs and bare-metal hypervisors.

In a telling signal of the risk, VMWare warned earlier this yr that attackers exploited vulnerabilities in its ESXi hypervisor and elements to deploy ransomware. Different experiences in the course of the yr additionally confirmed that ESXi-related ransomware breaches are increasing. 

Let’s not neglect: Attackers learn the information too. They’re largely a “follower” economic system that quickly pivots to recognized successes. 

Lastly, these kind of assaults current many attacker benefits round pace and scale for his or her intrusions. The expertise cuts each methods.

These applied sciences characterize greenfield alternatives for attackers, and I believe we’ll hear extra about these sorts of incidents in 2024.

3: Edge gadgets will develop as a goal for “boutique” hacker teams

In September, U.S. and Japanese authorities companies introduced that hackers linked to the Folks’s Republic of China used stolen or weak administrative credentials to compromise Cisco routers with the set up of hard-to-detect backdoors for sustaining entry.

The disclosure exemplified an rising development we’ll see extra of within the new yr: Authorities intrusion teams viewing assaults on edge gadgets as a solution to differentiate themselves from garden-variety ransomware gangs.

As a result of these sorts of intrusions take appreciable technological prowess, are sometimes tough to detect and may do an excessive amount of harm, they’re nearly undoubtedly a significant separator throughout cyber threats.

Edge gadgets nearly actually will probably be a significant cybersecurity battlefront in 2024 and can present a possibility for hacker teams to indicate off their capabilities. There will probably be teams that may pull this off (and can). To push this prediction all the best way to the sting (pun meant), authorities packages might even “defend” this edge entry from different cybercrime teams and push them out to take care of their stealthy entry.

4: AI will dominate the cybersecurity dialog

Should you assume you haven’t already heard so much about AI’s potential for cybersecurity, simply wait till 2024. AI will probably be entrance and heart in a variety of cybersecurity discussions.

Each attackers and defenders will step up their use of AI. The dangerous guys will use it extra to generate malware, automate assaults and strengthen the effectiveness of social engineering campaigns. The nice guys will counter by incorporating machine studying (ML) algorithms, pure language processing (NLP) and different AI-based instruments into their cybersecurity methods.

In the meantime, the Brennan Middle for Justice calls 2024 the primary presidential election of the generative AI period. Candidates probably might want to tackle the “AI anxiousness” that many citizens really feel. And, concern is rampant that the expertise could possibly be used to unfold disinformation by deepfakes and AI-generated voices.

I consider there may be nearly no situation the place AI-driven deepfakes received’t be a part of the pending U.S. Presidential election amongst others. 

We’ll additionally hear extra concerning the position AI can play in fixing the persistent cybersecurity expertise hole, with AI-powered programs taking on an increasing number of of the routine operations in safety operations facilities. 

With regards to cybersecurity in 2024, AI will probably be in every single place.

5: CISOs (and others) will really feel strain from latest authorities actions

In late October, the Securities and Change Fee introduced fees towards SolarWinds Company — which was focused by a Russian-backed hacking group in one of many worst cyber-espionage incidents in U.S. historical past in 2019 — and its chief data safety officer, Timothy G. Brown.

The criticism alleged that for greater than two years, SolarWinds and Brown defrauded traders by overstating SolarWinds’ cybersecurity practices and understating or failing to reveal recognized dangers. 

The fees got here practically six months after a choose sentenced Joseph Sullivan, the previous CISO at Uber, to 3 years of probation and ordered him to pay a $50,000 advantageous after a jury discovered him responsible of two felonies. Sullivan had been charged with masking up a ransomware assault whereas Uber was below investigation by the Federal Commerce Fee for earlier lapses in information safety.

However many critics of the decision have questioned why Sullivan could possibly be held criminally responsible for negotiating a deal to repay the ransomware attackers to guard his firm’s fame.

On high of all that, new SEC guidelines on cybersecurity and disclosure of breaches took impact Dec. 15. They require private and non-private corporations to adjust to quite a few incident reporting and governance disclosure necessities.

All of this may have CISOs wanting over their shoulder in 2024. As if defending their organizations from dangerous actors wasn’t difficult sufficient, now they must pay extra consideration to documenting completely every little thing. The CISO position will tackle a heavier regulatory compliance taste.

The complete C-suite may even probably should recalibrate their non-public/public sector discussions in 2024. 

Together with the factors above and their ripple results into different peer positions, the geopolitical panorama is altering. The final three years have proven unparalleled interplay and advocacy for working throughout non-public and public divides. These are due largely to goodwill created from the community-wide SolarWinds response efforts and near-universal help for Ukrainian cyber efforts. 

SolarWinds and the SEC will shift the previous level — and the Israel-Hamas battle is way extra divisive than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. All of this may occasionally result in a demonstrable shift in how senior leaders converse of, and with, governments.

As these 5 predictions present, 2024 needs to be an particularly fascinating yr within the cybersecurity enviornment. The brand new yr is upon us, and I’m buckling up for the trip.

Steven Stone is head of Rubrik Zero Labs at zero belief information safety firm Rubrik.