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I not too long ago reported on Tesla’s spectacular quarterly gross sales tendencies and one more report gross sales quarter. Tesla solely studies mixed international gross sales of the Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y mixed and of its different fashions mixed, however we now have estimated and break up out particular person fashions gross sales from the start. That stated, even splitting out particular person gross sales can miss some massive tales and nuances deeper beneath that floor. Let’s dig in a bit additional.

Tesla Mannequin 3 SR Dominating in USA

To start with, main Tesla quantity tracker and quantity cruncher Troy Teslike picked out an interesting discovering: the Tesla Mannequin 3 Customary Vary’s share of Mannequin 3 gross sales within the US turned fully dominant final 12 months. I had another theories when first seeing this, however Troy’s rationalization was: “Mannequin 3 Customary Vary gross sales within the US elevated over time as a result of that’s what Tesla can produce as a result of they don’t have sufficient 2170 cells to supply extra Lengthy Vary variations. Up to now, Tesla was targeted extra on vary which is crucial standards for EV consumers.” Presumably, that’s the core rationalization. Nevertheless, I additionally puzzled if Tesla was prioritizing deliveries of the Customary Vary (SR) in 2023 understanding that it might not qualify for the $7,500 US EV tax credit score in 2024. Moreover, I puzzled if Tesla had maybe tapped a lot of the marketplace for the dearer Mannequin 3 however was nonetheless capable of finding many consumers for the cheaper Mannequin 3 because it lowered costs and phrase of mouth unfold about how low cost a Tesla could possibly be. In spite of everything, Tesla did interact in quite a lot of value slicing because the 12 months went on so as to stimulate extra demand.

Mannequin 3 Customary Vary gross sales within the US elevated over time as a result of that is what Tesla can produce as a result of they do not have sufficient 2170 cells to supply extra Lengthy Vary variations.

Up to now, Tesla was targeted extra on vary which is crucial standards for EV consumers. pic.twitter.com/0jeJfbKMwU

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 21, 2023

Lastly, I additionally puzzled if extra folks merely realized they don’t want 300 miles of vary, that 200 miles is a lot. For the previous decade, I’ve been an advocate for the truth that folks drive so much lower than they assume they do, and with the comfort of residence and/or office charging, they usually want a lot much less vary (a lot smaller batteries) than they assume they do. Maybe that message has been getting on the market.

However Troy stated it’s all about battery provide. Possibly it’s.

Mannequin Y vs. Mannequin 3 in China

This subsequent one isn’t about quantity gross sales, however about pricing. Again in early 2022, the Mannequin Y Customary Vary price about $6,000 greater than the Mannequin 3 Customary Vary in China. Nevertheless, as time went on, the 2 fashions bought nearer and nearer in value. On the finish of 2023, they have been virtually the identical value!

Right here is an attention-grabbing pattern. The chart exhibits the worth distinction between Mannequin Y and Mannequin 3 Customary Vary RWD in China, in USD. Mannequin Y is dearer however the hole has shrunk over time.

Mannequin 3 manufacturing has maxed out. So, Tesla desires extra folks to decide on the Mannequin Y. pic.twitter.com/a8mRAPTuFX

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 15, 2023

Notably, Mannequin Y gross sales have been a lot greater in China, however so was manufacturing capability there. The important thing purpose behind the worth pattern, as Troy mentions, is that Mannequin 3 manufacturing was maxing out whereas there was a bit extra provide relative to demand with the Mannequin Y — so its value was dropped a number of occasions so as to transfer extra product.

Relating to that distinction in manufacturing quantity, one other graphic from Troy Teslike exhibits that Mannequin Y manufacturing at Giga Shanghai was almost double Mannequin 3 manufacturing within the 4th quarter, and was greater than double Mannequin 3 manufacturing within the third quarter.

Giga Shanghai manufacturing is predicted to be a brand new report in This autumn. Mannequin Y to Mannequin 3 ratio was 1.77 final 12 months. It is anticipated to be round 2.07 this 12 months. In different phrases, Giga Shanghai makes twice as many Mannequin Ys as Mannequin 3s. pic.twitter.com/OuQvrfK7Qv

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 15, 2023

Contemplating the necessity to decrease costs to maneuver Mannequin Y models, it appears the market could also be reaching its “pure limits,” as Jose Pontes says. Or, not less than, it was in the interim in 2023. We’ll see if there are any notable adjustments in 2024 and past.