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As you’ve absolutely seen by now, Tesla gross sales slumped lots within the first quarter. In actual fact, I feel it’s honest to say they crashed. The next charts will visualize that for you, and should you’re a Tesla fan (or shareholder), it’s a must to admit they’re slightly scary.

After sharing and briefly commenting on every of the charts, I’ll return to the broader dialogue we and others have been having for the previous 6 months or so — or, genuinely, since earlier than the primary Mannequin S was delivered in 2012! (Wow, it’s exhausting to consider that was 12 years in the past — I bear in mind it prefer it was final month. However that sentiment can also be a part of the story and dialogue at this time.)

To begin with, sure, there’s the dip, or crash. It was the bottom gross sales quarter because the third quarter of 2022. However the query is whether or not it’s extra just like the 2nd quarter of 2022 and we’re going to see a protracted and massive rise now, or its personal factor and the long run just isn’t so rosy.

Damaged down by mannequin (knowledgeable estimates), you’ll be able to see that basically all of Tesla’s progress and potential comes from two fashions — the Mannequin Y and Mannequin 3. As we maintain repeating, Tesla wants extra fashions. Tesla’s rivals in China roll out new fashions on a regular basis. It’s exhausting to place Tesla on the identical floor as them within the greatest EV market on this planet when there’s such a distinction right here.

Taking a look at it a distinct method, as a line graph, it’s fascinating to see how the fashions are both stagnating or dipping. Simply word that these are estimates since Tesla doesn’t launch particular person mannequin gross sales or manufacturing information.

Simply utilizing the official information from Tesla — which mixes Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y gross sales and in addition combines Mannequin S, Mannequin X, and Cybertruck gross sales — we will see that the latter are comparatively secure however far down beneath the Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y, and we will additionally see that the Mannequin Y and Mannequin 3 took a dive.

The 4 charts above are all cumulative gross sales charts. Maybe, as a response to the Q1 2024 gross sales dip, we could also be inclined to say: See, these charts present how a lot Tesla has grown and the way a lot it has achieved in such a short while! Precisely — Tesla has bought quite a lot of autos previously three years. How many individuals are available on the market for a Tesla in 2024? Is it actually the identical quantity as in 2023? Is phrase of mouth going to stimulate as many gross sales now because it did two years in the past? What number of consumers from 2021 or earlier than are already searching for an improve? Bear in mind the “Tesla stretch” when many individuals who had by no means purchased a brand new automobile purchased a Tesla Mannequin 3, or moved from a Honda Civic of Toyota Prius to a Tesla Mannequin 3? What number of of them are planning to remain of their Mannequin 3 for a very long time? What number of early Tesla consumers truly now need to attempt one thing totally different or aren’t into among the adjustments at Tesla (or with Elon)? One has to think about all of this stuff in the event that they need to objectively take into consideration Tesla’s future.

I wrote concerning the broader questions round Tesla inventory not too long ago. Key subject primary was how a lot Tesla gross sales would develop (or not) in coming quarters and years. As we noticed within the first quarter, the plain reply was “not.” Tesla had a couple of succinct explanations for that: “Decline in volumes was partially as a result of early part of the manufacturing ramp of the up to date Mannequin 3 at our Fremont manufacturing unit and manufacturing unit shutdowns ensuing from transport diversions brought on by the Purple Sea battle and an arson assault at Gigafactory Berlin.” However word the phrase “partially” there. As we’ve additionally famous not too long ago, Tesla is partaking in lots extra e mail advertising, textual content message advertising, and promoting. And that’s following important worth cuts which have chopped down Tesla’s gross margin. To be frank about it: Tesla is struggling to search out the buyer demand that it desires. In any other case, there’s little doubt about it — Tesla wouldn’t be promoting all around the web and Tesla homeowners like me wouldn’t be getting so many requests to improve to a brand new Tesla if the corporate had sufficient pure demand rolling in.

As Steve Hanley wrote yesterday, “On April 1, 2024 (no, that’s not a joke), Caliber advised Reuters that the consideration rating for Tesla has dropped from a excessive of 70 p.c when it first began monitoring the corporate in November 2021 to 31 p.c in February of this yr.” The consideration rating is what share of potential consumers would contemplate a Tesla.

Yet another factor that I feel must be stated, although, is that Tesla gross sales are not low. Almost 387,000 deliveries for a model that has simply two mass-market fashions remains to be fairly astounding. However that’s the purpose. How rather more room is the for the corporate to really develop with out extra mass-market fashions? The Tesla Mannequin Y already grew to become the very best promoting car mannequin on this planet. Is it anticipated to continue to grow in gross sales? Can we not contemplate the likelihood that it’d see a gross sales drop if there aren’t sufficient new consumers fascinated by it? I do know it’s blasphemy, however what if there aren’t 400,000 new consumers 1 / 4 prepared to purchase a Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y? What if there are “simply” 300,000, or 250,000? These would nonetheless be very excessive promoting fashions. Contemplate what number of of Tesla’s gross sales are in California, after which contemplate what number of Californians are remaining to purchase new Teslas, and what number of of these folks truly need one. Conduct an identical train for China, for some European markets, for the Pacific Northwest.

That is not a knock on Tesla. What Tesla has already achieved is sort of unbelievable. It’s a shocking enterprise success story that should be taught at enterprise colleges world wide every single day. However simply because earlier bullish predictions about Tesla had been proper doesn’t imply present ones are.

As famous close to the highest, the Mannequin S got here out in 2012, almost 14 years in the past. The corporate has seen nearly fixed progress since then. However we’ve got to be cautious typically and understand that the previous is certainly over and the long run is unpredictable. Storylines can change, and, actually, they usually do.

Concerning the query within the title, I don’t know the reply. However that’s the purpose. And also you don’t both. We shouldn’t assume one thing will occur simply because we would like it to occur. We must always maintain our minds open.

For extra chart enjoyable, listed here are interactive variations of among the charts above: