Ming-Chi Kuo is out with some iPhone 15 launch day evaluation based mostly on provide chain sources. As the brand new iPhones attain clients around the globe, Kuo shares 4 conclusions about how every mannequin is performing and Apple’s fall quarter will go.

First, Kuo writes that he expects Apple to attain year-over-year progress for the corporate’s fourth quarter. That’s thanks to higher than anticipated iPhone income and revenue from promoting pricier fashions and delivery in a bigger capability than a yr in the past.

“I nonetheless keep my estimate of iPhone 15 shipments in 2H23 of 80 million items, whereas iPhone 14 shipments in 2H22 have been 76 million as a result of Hon Hai Zhengzhou manufacturing unit shut down in November final yr,” Kuo provides.

Kuo says the iPhone 15 Professional Max is Apple’s major progress driver throughout This autumn. He expects 35 million items shipped in comparison with 28 million for the iPhone 14 Professional Max.

The brand new 5x telephoto lens is unique to the iPhone 15 Professional Max this yr. The digicam module can also be probably the most constrained half. That’s in all probability why 5x zoom is barely on the most costly mannequin for this era. Each sizes of iPhone 16 Professional are anticipated to have the longer optical zoom stage subsequent yr.

The iPhone 15 Plus can also be a winner, in line with Kuo. The analyst believes Apple initially ordered fewer fashions than it can want based mostly on early gross sales outcomes.

A yr in the past, the iPhone 14 Plus shipped just a few weeks after the remainder of the lineup. In the meantime, it was the iPhone 14 Professional line that offered in larger volumes than Apple anticipated, in line with provide chain studies.

Lastly, Kuo feedback on the usual iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Professional mannequin efficiency thus far.

“The iPhone 15 and 15 Professional fall wanting expectations, and there’s a chance of order cuts for these two fashions if Apple doesn’t lower their costs,” Kuo says.

Now will Apple really decrease the value tag on the $799 and $999 fashions? Not an opportunity. Nonetheless, if Kuo is correct, it’s doable there may very well be better promotional incentives utilized to those fashions.

Nonetheless, Apple seeing extra success with its dearer fashions from each strains looks like a superb downside to have. We’ll proceed monitoring what the analysts are saying and what really occurs over the following a number of weeks.

Remember the fact that that is the cycle the place most analysts anticipated iPhone 15 Professional and iPhone 15 Professional Max to extend in value. As an alternative, Apple dropped the $1099 128GB Professional Max mannequin from the lineup, however stored the value per storage intact. In different areas and in comparison with inflation, costs really noticed a relative drop.