Two months in the past, Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin led his militia in a mutiny towards the Russian regime. Now, Prigozhin is believed to have been concerned in a deadly aircraft crash, Russian state media has reported.

Prigozhin was listed as a passenger on a non-public aircraft that crashed north of Moscow Wednesday, killing all 10 passengers aboard, in line with media studies. Russian authorities haven’t formally confirmed the paramilitary chief’s loss of life, however some Telegram channels linked to the Wagner Group have mentioned that he was killed. On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin provided condolences to victims of the aircraft crash, describing Prigozhin as a person with a “troublesome destiny.”

If Prigozhin is formally confirmed among the many crash fatalities, it might be a dramatic — however not altogether stunning — improvement. In June, Prigozhin led his militia on a speedy march towards Moscow, a brazen problem to Putin’s regime. Prigozhin abruptly halted his revolt earlier than reaching the capital, and the Kremlin later mentioned Prigozhin had accepted a deal — apparently brokered by Belarus — to enter exile in Belarus.

Few thought Prigozhin was about to take pleasure in a calming retirement in Minsk — or wherever else, for that matter. As one Wagner watcher informed Vox months earlier than Prigozhin’s short-lived coup: “He is aware of that if the present regime or if his Wagner Group goes down, he goes down with them.”

What we find out about Prigozhin and the aircraft crash

An Embraer jet en route from Moscow to St. Petersburg went down close to the town of Tver on Wednesday. Movies circulating on social media confirmed a picture of a aircraft plummeting from the sky; one other appeared to point out the wreckage ablaze.

Russian media has reported that every one 10 our bodies have now been recovered from the crash and that the aircraft carried three pilots and 7 passengers. Russia’s aviation authorities have mentioned they’re “investigating the circumstances and causes of the accident,” in line with the New York Instances, and are at present testing the passengers’ stays.

Prigozhin was on the passenger manifest, although it’s nonetheless unconfirmed whether or not he was really on the flight. Some Telegram channels, together with these tied to Wagner Group, have begun to publish that Prigozhin has died. The Wagner-affiliated account, Gray Zone, indicated Wednesday that Prigozhin, a “true patriot of the Motherland,” had “died on account of the actions of traitors to Russia.”

“However even in Hell he would be the greatest! Glory to Russia!” the Telegram publish learn, in line with studies.

Different people with Wagner ties had been additionally reportedly listed on the flight manifest, however their deaths are additionally not but formally confirmed. Amongst them is Dmitry Utkin, who is typically cited because the operational chief or co-founder of the Wagner Group, though the proof of that may be a bit murky.

Utkin is reportedly a former commander for the particular forces of the GRU, Russia’s navy intelligence service. Because the story goes, he had a factor for the Third Reich and used “Wagner” as a nom de guerre. Nevertheless, some researchers consider that Utkin is extra doubtless a straw man, serving to to disguise among the paramilitary’s extra direct ties to the Russian state. Someone who could also be Utkin seems to have labored for Wagner, however he might not have really been in cost, or a founding determine.

Utkin’s identify on the passenger checklist, alongside Prigozhin’s, hints on the chance that this was an effort to purge identified Wagner associates within the wake of the mutiny.

Loads stays unknown. Russian authorities and state media stay the first sources on this crash proper now — entities not precisely identified for his or her transparency. Putin lastly addressed the crash late Thursday, providing condolences to the victims, whom he indicated had been Wagner Group workers. Putin known as Prigozhin a gifted businessman who “made severe errors in life.”

“He achieved the outcomes wanted each for himself and after I requested him about it — for a typical trigger, as in these final months,” Putin reportedly mentioned.

At the very least one Western intelligence official confirmed Prigozhin’s loss of life to the New York Instances on Thursday. Some US and Western intelligence officers have now mentioned they consider an explosion doubtless took down the aircraft, however that isn’t a agency conclusion simply but.

White Home Nationwide Safety Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson mentioned in a assertion Wednesday that the administration had seen the studies. “If confirmed, nobody ought to be stunned. The disastrous warfare in Ukraine led to a non-public military marching on Moscow, and now — it might appear — to this.”

Prigozhin’s rise up challenged Putin, and Putin doesn’t usually let his enemies stick round

Often called “Putin’s chef,” Prigozhin had lengthy been one thing of a fixer for Putin’s regime. He rose from the felony underworld in post-Soviet Russia, and that at all times made him a little bit of an outsider amongst Russia’s elites. He wasn’t precisely in Putin’s interior circle, however he had the talents and connections to make himself helpful and wanted.

The identical was true in his function as the pinnacle of the Wagner Group, a sort-of-private military that carried out the geopolitical goals of the Russian state, particularly in locations like Africa and the Center East. Up to now yr, Wagner had been among the more practical Russian fighters in Ukraine, finally taking the jap metropolis of Bakhmut in a bloody, grinding, months-long battle. It was certainly one of Russia’s uncommon victories from its winter counteroffensive, and Prigozhin had used his clout to accentuate his criticism of Russia’s high navy brass, posting scathing movies accusing generals of denying Wagner the ammunition and help wanted to struggle successfully.

Prigozhin’s assaults had been so daring that Putin lastly appeared to lose persistence, and Russia put out a directive that the Russian navy would formally combine Wagner fighters by July. Prigozhin claimed he wished to keep away from that, and that at the least partially motivated his rise up.

That revolt lasted about 24 hours, with Wagner fighters seizing navy installations in Russia’s south and marching on Moscow. Then, simply as abruptly, Prigozhin halted that motion, saying he didn’t want to shed Russian blood. The Kremlin later mentioned a deal had been reached whereby Prigozhin would keep away from prosecution in alternate for going into exile in Belarus, and Wagner fighters may both be part of him or enlist with the Russian military.

Putin just about tried to return to enterprise as ordinary within the wake of Prigozhin’s mutiny, albeit with much more public appearances. Prigozhin has not been broadly seen in public since his June rise up, with solely imprecise or sketchy studies of his whereabouts. That features a assertion from the Kremlin in July that claimed that Putin met with Prigozhin shortly after the rise up, at the least one video that gave the impression of Prigozhin’s voice greeting Wagner recruits in Belarus, and a photograph posted in July apparently taken in St. Petersburg with an official from the Central African Republic.

However he did appear to be getting round, and simply this week, an individual who seemed to be Prigozhin spoke in a brief video clip about Wagner’s operations in Africa — although the date and actual location of the video had been unconfirmed. It was his first video since his rise up, posted about earlier than Wednesday’s aircraft crash.

That provides to the considerably auspicious timing for this aircraft crash, as does the reported elimination of Gen. Sergei Surovikin from his place as Russian aerospace commander. Surovikin, a high Russian navy chief, was seen as a Prigozhin ally, and US intelligence reportedly had proof that Surovikin may need had advance data of the Wagner rise up. Surovikin hadn’t been seen for the reason that mutiny, and a few studies had advised he had been detained within the rise up’s aftermath.

Surovikin’s obvious elimination and Prigozhin’s potential demise all appear to recommend that Putin could also be purging what he sees as potential threats to his energy. Prigozhin’s place was at all times dependent to a level on Putin’s largesse, and staging a mutiny towards the president put him, fairly unequivocally, in an awfully precarious state. Prigozhin has at all times maintained that his revolt was not a coup try, however his rise up made it take a look at least attainable that Putin might be overthrown, undermining his picture as an infallible strongman.

Which at all times meant the concept Putin would let Prigozhin — or any of his Wagner fighters — casually reconstitute in Belarus was very, most unlikely. Putin has been identified to pursue his perceived enemies at residence and overseas for a lot lower than an armed rise up. Putin’s critics have been poisoned, together with opposition chief Alexei Navalny. Opponents have fallen out of home windows. Russia has additionally been suspected in aircraft crash assassination plots: Polish authorities allege the Kremlin was liable for the crash that killed Poland’s president in 2010. And it’s in all probability additionally value mentioning Russia’s function in downing a civilian jet over Ukraine in 2014.

Even when Prigozhin suffered the identical destiny as different Putin foes, it’s nonetheless unsure what it means for the Russian regime. Putin can’t absolutely undo the situations that led to Prigozhin’s mutiny. Russia remains to be dealing with setbacks in Ukraine, and Prigozhin’s criticisms of the Russian navy have discovered continued buy among the many nationalistic proper in Russia. Russian authorities have quietly begun to crack down on some right-wing navy bloggers in latest weeks, a sign {that a} post-rebellion purge of Putin’s perceived enemies was already underway.

The world has seen various twists within the numerous plots which have emerged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Prigozhin’s attainable demise might but be one other one. Prigozhin himself was a grasp of misinformation, utilizing propaganda as a part of Wagner’s portfolio and past. He has some incentives to make himself disappear, too.

However no matter occurred with this crash — and whether or not or not Prigozhin actually was on the jet and died in it — Prigozhin was doubtless by no means going to be the exception to the rule in Putin’s Russia.

Replace, August 24, 1:30 pm ET: This publish was initially printed on August 23 and has been up to date a number of instances, most lately to incorporate Putin’s feedback on the crash and knowledge from Western intelligence officers.